Monday, December 31, 2007

it's good for you

Marvin Lewis has been talking about "blowing things up" this offseason in regards to the Bengals' personnel, so it sounds like the players had better get ready for a shakedown before next season. I think there will be a handful of defensive free agents--guys like Justin Smith, who recorded a measly two sacks this season, as well as Landon Johnson, Dexter Jackson, and Bryan Robinson--who won't be returning. I wouldn't be shocked to see Madieu Williams leave as well; another decent-but-not-outstanding season was hampered by injuries and rookie safety Chinedum Ndukwe has been outstanding as his replacement. They might not all be gone, but i don't see most of them coming back. Hopefully they will resign some of the free agents who had a big impact this year, like linebacker Dhani Jones. From the sound of it, Lewis is even going to look into revamping the playbook and evaluating the entire staff, although I don't think we'll see any major changes in the coaching positions.

Both Lewis and Carson Palmer have made comments that they think the team needs an attitude change, which leads to wonder what will happen to some players who are not free agents. Will Henry be cut loose if they decide that keeping him isn't worth the risk after he never got completely up to speed in 2007 after being suspended the first half of the season?

What about Chad Johnson? I don't think Marvin Lewis likes having him around with his occasional emotional baggage, and I think Chad is more disgruntled with Cincinnati after being burned by the media this year. I think if it was left up to Lewis, he'd look to trade Chad, but since Mike Brown has said that Chad won't be leaving then nothing will happen unless Brown changes his mind. I think getting rid of Chad would be a mistake; as good as T.J. Houshmanzadeh has been, I still don't think he could be as effective as a first wide receiver.

There could be some changes on the offensive line, although considering how long it took the line to get a rhythm going this year after some injuries and losing Eric Steinbach to free agency, they might not want to tamper to with it. If they do, I think Levi Jones might be one to go. He had his own attitude problems early in the season and I wouldn't be surprised if that, along with his injury problems and expensive contract, led him to being dismissed. It's not likely, but it could happen depending on how much Marvin wants to clean house. Willie Anderson also may not be back after being injured much of this past year, although if he leaves it will be on his own terms through retirement.

Then comes the problem with the running backs. There are five potential running backs--Rudi Johnson, Kenny Watson, DeDe Dorsey, Kenny Irons, and Chris Perry--and it is likely the Bengals will only keep three (I'm not counting fullback Jeremi Johnson). Rudi Johnson was hampered by injuries for most of 2007 and played poorly most of the time. Do you dump him after one bad year and hope that Kenny Watson handle being the lead back all season? If both Chris Perry and Kenny Irons are healthy, I would think they'd have to go with Irons over Perry. You'd have to hope that Irons' injury was simply a fluke, so you have to keep him over the injury-prone bust that Perry has become. DeDe Dorsey showed too much potential to simply cut him, but it's doubtful you could get anything in a trade for him. The only back that has any trade value would be Rudi, but even that might be hindered by his injuries this year. It will be interesting to see what they do.

Looking ahead to the 2008 season, the good news is that the Bengals have the ninth pick overall in the draft, so they should be set to get a good defensive lineman or linebacker. The bad news is that the Bengals likely face a tougher schedule than they did in 2007. They play eight games against playoff teams (counting Pittsburgh twice) and the two toughest divisions in football: the AFC South, where the worst team (Houston) was 8-8 and three teams made the playoffs, and the NFC East, where once again no team had a losing record and three teams made the playoffs (Philadelphia came in last with an 8-8 record). The Bengals only play three teams with losing records in 2007, including the 5-11 Baltimore Ravens twice, as well as the New York Jets and the Kansas City Chiefs, both of whom went 4-12 in 2007. The combined record from 2007 for the Bengals 2008 opponents is 115-93.

Unfortunately, next season could be another long one. If Marvin Lewis and Mike Brown decide to really shake things up, next year could be more of a rebuilding year than a competitive one, especially with such a daunting schedule.

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